Share 
Americans are expected to wager $29.5 billion through legal commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, virtually unchanged from the AGA’s $29.4 billion estimate for last season.
The forecast points to a major slowdown following years of expansion across the regulated sports betting industry. It also highlights the growing competition between licensed Pennsylvania sportsbooks and sports contracts offered by prediction market platforms.
The American Gaming Association attributed the flat national outlook partly to the rapid expansion of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
NFL betting growth projected at less than 1%
The $100 million difference between the AGA’s estimates for the past two NFL seasons represents growth of approximately 0.3%.
The projection covers the entire NFL betting calendar, including preseason games, futures wagers accepted as early as March, the regular season, playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
The AGA calculated the figure by applying national sports betting growth recorded so far in 2026 to last season’s estimated NFL total. It also used football-specific reports from selected states to estimate the portion of overall wagering expected to come from professional football.
The $29.5 billion represents handle, or the total amount wagered, rather than the revenue sportsbooks retain after paying winning customers.
The AGA did not provide individual forecasts for Pennsylvania or other states, leaving the outlook for NFL betting in the commonwealth unclear.
Younger users account for billions in Kalshi volume
The AGA said sports account for approximately 80% of Kalshi’s total trading volume. It also estimates that users between the ages of 18 and 20 have generated more than $5.1 billion in sports volume on the platform so far this year.
The estimate is based on a since-altered Kalshi webpage stating that users ages 18 to 20 accounted for 4% of its trading volume. The AGA applied that percentage to the platform’s subsequent growth, producing an estimate of more than $5.13 billion as of Sept. 1.
The age distinction is particularly relevant in Pennsylvania. Customers must be at least 21 to wager through a licensed sportsbook in the state, while federally regulated prediction markets generally allow users to participate beginning at 18.
The AGA also estimates that prediction markets have diverted more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming taxes since 2025. It did not provide a Pennsylvania-specific estimate.
Prediction markets remain outside Pennsylvania oversight
The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board has taken the position that sports event contracts constitute illegal sports wagering under state law.
Kalshi and other platforms maintain that their contracts are financial products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than wagers subject to state gaming laws. Pennsylvania regulators have disputed that distinction.
Licensed sportsbooks in Pennsylvania must follow state requirements covering age verification, responsible gambling protections, integrity monitoring, and customer disputes. They also report their wagering activity to the state and pay taxes on revenue after promotions.
Prediction market activity is not included in Pennsylvania’s monthly sports betting totals and does not generate sports wagering tax revenue for the state.
Pennsylvania’s recent results illustrate the amount of regulated wagering and tax revenue involved. Pennsylvania sportsbooks accepted $509.5 million in wagers during July, an increase of 23.5% from July 2025.
Operators reported $51.8 million in revenue after promotions and generated nearly $18.7 million in state tax revenue during the month. The results show that Pennsylvania’s regulated market was still growing shortly before the start of the NFL season.
The AGA’s national forecast does not necessarily mean Pennsylvania wagering will remain flat. Monthly state reports issued during the NFL season will show whether Pennsylvania’s overall sports betting market continues to grow during the busiest months of the football calendar.
