Follow the Money: Chiefs, Buccaneers Seemed on Super Bowl LV Collision Course

Posted By Katie Kohler on January 25, 2021 - Last Updated on May 31, 2021

The Kansas City Chiefs defended their AFC crown and will look to be the first team in 16 years to repeat back to back as Super Bowl champs.

Their Super Bowl LV opponent’s quarterback is familiar with back-to-back Lombardi Trophies and building a legacy. Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to consecutive Super Bowl wins in 2003 and 2004. In his first year at quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they will be the fourth wild card team since 1990 to make the big game. Oh, and they will have the home field advantage.

It was an unprecedented season due to the effects of coronavirus, but a Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl matchup doesn’t come as a surprise for most bettors.

Prior to the start of Championship Sunday, at BetMGM, the Chiefs (34%) and the Buccaneers (11%) both had the highest handle for Super Bowl winner futures. According to a BetMGM rep, the book’s biggest Super Bowl liabilities are the Bucs and the Chiefs.

Opening lines for Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7 put the Chiefs as 3-point favorites, with the total points at 56. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP (-105 at FanDuel and +100 at DraftKings). See our guide for a complete rundown on Super Bowl betting in PA.

Super Bowl LV betting stats and info

Betting stats and info for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers from DraftKings:

  • The Chiefs’ win probability is 60%.
  • The Chiefs are 8-9-1 ATS; the Buccaneers are 10-8-1.
  • Nine of the Chiefs’ 18 games have gone over. Eleven of the Bucs’ 19 games have gone over.
  • The Bucs are on a seven-game win streak
  • Average points per game for the Chiefs is 29.6; for the Bucs, 30.7
  • The Chiefs’ average points against: 22.4; the Bucs: 22.3.

Super Bowl LV betting markets in PA

PA online sportsbooks offer bettors many ways to wager on Super Bowl LV action in addition to point spread and total points, such as:

  • Player props
  • Team props
  • Game props
  • Halves
  • Quarters
  • Winning margin
  • First scoring play
  • Full list on app

Super Bowl MVP

  • Patrick Mahomes: +105
  • Tom Brady: +225
  • Tyreek Hill: +1200
  • Travis Kelce: +1300
  • Leonard Fournette: +2500
  • Full list on app

Other Super Bowl MVP markets

  • MVP from losing team (yes) +500
  • Position of MVP

Novelty Props

  • Coin toss
  • Trick play specials
  • Team to win coin toss and game
  • Fat man TD
  • Player to correctly call coin toss

2020 preseason Super Bowl winner and MVP odds

The Kansas City Chiefs opened the season as co-favorites at PA online sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl.

Preseason top five favorites at sportsbook apps:

  • Baltimore Ravens: +650
  • Kansas City Chiefs: +650
  • San Francisco 49ers: +800
  • New Orleans Saints: +1400
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +1600

Before signing Brady to a contract in March 2020, the Bucs were +6500.

Preseason Super Bowl LV MVP odds:

  • Patrick Mahomes: +775
  • Lamar Jackson: +850
  • Jimmy Garoppolo: +1400
  • Drew Brees: +1700
  • Tom Brady: +2000

Conference Championships betting splits

Final scores:

Buccaneers 31, Packers 26
Winning wagers: Buccaneers (+3.5), over

Chiefs 38, Bills 24
Winning wagers: Chiefs (-3), over

Betting splits for Buccaneers vs. Packers at FanDuel:

  • 82% of the money was on the Packers (-3)
  • 75% of the money was on the over (52)
  • 68% of the money was the Packers (-190) moneyline

Betting splits for Bills vs. Chiefs at FanDuel:

  • 52% of the money was on the Chiefs (-3)
  • 53% of the money was on the over (54.5)
  • 58% of the money was the Bills (+150) moneyline

At BetMGM, 79% of the money was on the Packers (-3.5) to cover the spread. Sixty-three percent of the money was on the Chiefs (-3.5) to cover. Bills vs. Chiefs was the most bet game on Sunday. Jason Scott, VP of trading at BetMGM, commented:

“It was a good weekend for the sportsbook. The Buccaneers upsetting the Packers was the best result BetMGM has had on a single event in 12 months. The public won some money back on the Chiefs but Sunday was still a very profitable day.”

Notable Championship Sunday bets

Winning bets:

  • At BetMGM, $800K to win $500K on Chiefs -160 moneyline
  • At William Hill, a bettor placed a $705,000 wager on Kansas City ML (-155). Potential payout: $1,159,839.
  • $330,000 on Kansas City -3 (-110). Placed on Sunday morning with William Hill Sports Book in Nevada. The bet would net $300,000 if the Chiefs cover.
  • At BetMGM, a bettor placed a $550,000 wager on the Bucs +3.5; the bet would win $500,000.
  • A Nevada bettor at William Hill placed a $500,000 wager on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) for a potential payout of $954,545.
  • At BetMGM, $165K to win $100K on the Chiefs -165 moneyline
  • The largest wager of the entire weekend was a winner at BetRivers Sportsbook, an Illinois BetRivers.com bettor who earned a payout of $96,900 on a $38,000 bet on the Buccaneers +155 ML.
  •  An Indiana bettor placed $20,000 on the Buccaneers +150 for a total potential payout of $50,000 at William Hill.

Losing bets:

  • A William Hill bettor wagered $200,000 on Green Bay -3 (-125). The bet would net $160,000.
  • A FanDuel customer in PA bet $320K on the Packers -3 @-120 to win $266,666.
  • A Washington, D.C., bettor laid $40,000 on the Packers -3 (-125) for a total potential payout of $72,000, which is the largest 2021 Conference Championship wager taken thus far at William Hill.
  • At William Hill, two separate $10,000 bets placed on Buffalo moneyline +135 for total potential payouts of $23,500 apiece.

(A number of these bets were placed before the game. The bettors could have cashed out, hedged, etc.)

Super Bowl LV odds at PA sportsbooks

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Lead image credit: AP Photo/Jason Behnken

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Katie Kohler

Katie Kohler is a Philadelphia-area based award-winning journalist. She is the Managing Editor at PlayPennsylvania and covers the Pennsylvania gambling industry with an emphasis on sports betting, online casino/poker and the lottery.

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