The Philadelphia Phillies odds of making the MLB playoffs have been on the move since the firing manager Joe Girardi.
In an expanded MLB postseason, oddsmakers believed the Phillies would make the playoffs prior to the start of the season. Before Opening Day, the Phillies odds to make the playoffs were -130 at Caesars Sportsbook and most other Pennsylvania sportsbooks.
However, the Phillies started the season 22-29 and fell 12 games behind the New York Mets. They fired Girardi on June 3 and Rob Thomson was named the interim manager for the rest of the season.
Philadelphia Phillies odds movement
Seven games under .500, with a $243 million payroll and mired in a postseason draught since 2011, the Phillies odds to make the MLB playoffs at DraftKings on June 3, the day Girardi was fired, were +235.
The Phillies fired off eight straight wins after Girardi was fired. They entered August with a record of 55-48. To start September, the Fightins’ maintained their well-above .500 pace and were 73-59.
Phillies odds movement to make the playoffs
(odds via DraftKings)
- Start of season: -130
- June 3 (Girardi fired): Yes +235
- June 26 (Bryce Harper injury): Yes +135
- August 8: Yes -295
Phillies playoff betting insight
Eric Biggio, Head Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, shared his thoughts on the Phillies playoff chances. (Biggio spoke to PlayPennsylvania on Friday, Sept. 16. The Phillies then lost the next four games. They are currently floundering in their longest losing streak of the season (5 games).
“The Phillies are live if Bryce Harper stays healthy and Zack Wheeler comes back as the 2021 version. They could definitely win 2 out of 3. If they slip to the No. 6 seed that would actually be a more favorable matchup against the Cardinals, in my opinion, as I think a Nola and Wheeler combo is better than what the Cardinals have to offer for starting pitching.
“If they could get by that first series, they would probably be matched up with the Dodgers. Again would be a strong underdog there, but the Braves won it all last year as a wild card team, so no reason the Phillies couldn’t make a big run.”
Phillies go Over win total for 2022
Sportsbooks will be paying for Phillies Over win totals bettors. Prior to the start of the season, Phillies bettors were confident that the team would surpass the win total set by oddsmakers.
Nearly all the money (98%) at DraftKings Sportsbook was on the Over for Phillies win total (80.5) and for the Phillies to make the playoffs (98%). At FanDuel, 91% of the money was on the Phillies to win Over 81.5 games.
Big MLB payrolls in playoff contention
Does a big payroll mean teams will be playing in the postseason? According to data released by Major League Baseball, 8 of the top 10 teams by luxury tax payroll are in the hunt to make the playoffs.
The Phillies are fourth for payroll and are projected to pay $2.6 million in luxury tax.
NL Pennant odds at PA online sportsbooks
Lead image by Chris Szagola/AP